000 FXUS62 KMLB 022113 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 413 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, CLIMATE... .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today-Tonight...Looking at a fairly quiet end to a warm day. Vero Beach did manage to tie their high temperature of 86 degrees, last set in 1985, but Fort Pierce (also 86 degree) didn`t quite make it to their record of 87 degrees. Partly cloud skies becoming mostly clear tonight. Expecting a gentle to moderate breeze to continue through the night, which should limit or prevent fog develop, but will likely see low clouds again. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Friday...Troughing over the eastern US and the associated substantial low pressure system deepening over southeast Canada sweeps up the mid level shortwave swinging across the GOMEX, the frontal boundary stalled across the southeastern US, and the weak low pressure system embedded in the boundary, early Friday morning. This mess of boundaries and the weak low manages to organize into a fairly well defined and quick moving cold front by the time it gets to northern ECFL in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms work southward over the course of the day, with rain chances becoming 80-90 pct along the main convective line. Highest rain chances along and north of I-4 from the late morning through the afternoon, south of I-4 to The Cape from the early afternoon to the evening, and to the south from the afternoon through the late evening. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the main line, and scattered showers expected for a few hours afterwards. As far as the thunderstorm potential goes, GFS soundings are actually showing slightly steeper lapse rates and less inhibition to the south than previous runs, but the mid to upper levels remain very dry and CAPE in generally is lacking (less than 1000 J/kg). Daytime heating will provide some additional instability, so the possibility remain for a few strong storms capable of producing cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Skies clear and temperatures drop behind the front, with winds veering to northerly and becoming breezy to windy, especially along the coast where winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph with gust around 35 mph. Afternoon highs in the 70s north of The Cape, and the lower 80s to the south. Friday Night-Saturday...By sunset Friday evening, the front is anticipated to be over the southern third of the FL peninsula, still bringing high likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms especially over the Atlantic and at the immediate coast through the overnight. The front then slows to a crawl into Saturday morning, completely stalling early in the weekend. Lingering rain chances will persist especially from the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee on Saturday, but areas along and north of the I-4 corridor should remain generally dry. Breezy conditions are expected due to a tightening pressure gradient as surface high pressure drops over the coastal Carolinas. Northeast to east winds up to 15-20 mph expected at the coast in the morning will spread inland and increase slightly into the afternoon. Temperatures behind the front Saturday morning will drop to the upper 40s to mid 50s with the exception of the Treasure Coast which will still reside in the low 60s prior to the passage. Saturday temps will be cooler and pleasant, only reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows Sunday morning warm to the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday-Thursday...(modified previous) The stalled frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will lift northward on Sunday. Some upper level support along the boundary aids in developing a surface low late Sunday night into early Monday morning, although a bit of disagreement still present in the global model solutions. The GFS pulls an inverted trough just offshore from Cape Canaveral on Sunday afternoon, then rapidly developing into a surface low by Monday morning as it pulls seaward to the open Atlantic. The ECM develops a low closer to the Bahamas then pulling seaward at a similar time scale. Still, the GFS solution would keep precip in the forecast Sunday night, whereas the offshore ECM solution will keep the area dry. High pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday keeping PoPs over land below mentionable levels until late in the week. Temperatures will slowly warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday will increasing into the low to mid 80s by Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Rest of Today-Friday...Boating conditions begin to deteriorate, becoming poor offshore tonight, then quickly become hazardous to dangerous by Friday afternoon. High pressure that has been anchored over Florida retreats eastward ahead of a cold front, reaching the Volusia waters by Friday morning and working south across the waters through the day. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead Friday ahead of and along the front. Winds SW 10-15 nearshore (increasing to 15-20 kts offshore tonight) quickly become northerly 20-25 kts behind the front, with winds up to 30 kts possible. Frequent gusts to gale force expected in the Volusia and Brevard waters by Friday afternoon, with a Gale Watch going into effect at 1 PM. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the Treasure Coast waters at 5 PM as the front reaches those waters, but currently not expecting frequent gusts to gale force until early Saturday morning. Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore begin building Friday evening, becoming 6-9 ft north of The Cape and 5-7 ft to the south by sunset. Friday Night-Monday...A long duration marine event will set up late this week behind Friday`s cold front passage. As the front stalls over south FL Friday night, a northeast wind surge will arrive, quickly increasing over 25 knots north of Sebastian Inlet that will expand southward into Saturday morning, with frequent gusts to gale force possible. Seas will rapidly build this weekend from 5-7 feet late Friday to 7-9 feet nearshore and up to 12 feet offshore within 24 hours. Seas will only gradually subside, dropping to 4-6 feet early Monday. A Gale Watch will remain in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, possibly expanding in time with subsequent updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 VFR conditions the rest of today and early tonight for KDAB/KISM/KLEE/KSFB/KTIX, and mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period for KFPR/KMLB/KTIX/KVRB/KSUA. IFR/LIFR CIG impacts possible at the northern terminals from around 08-14Z. SW winds increasing to around 8 kts by early morning and strong flow above the will limit fog potential, but can`t rule out some reductions at the northern terminals. Increased rain and thunderstorm chances Friday and Friday night as a cold front passes through. VCSH starting around 13Z from KTIX northward. VCTS starting 16Z for KLEE/KMCO and around 17Z for KMCO. TEMPOs for MVFR-IFR CIGS and IFR-LIFR VIS from TSRA likely in upcoming TAF packages. VCSH with some MVFR VIS/CIG impacts expected for a few hours after the heaviest convection passes, then conditions improving to VFR behind the front.&& .CLIMATE... Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 Vero Beach reached 86 degrees this afternoon, which ties their high temperature record for today. (all records for today were set in 1985): Daytona Bch/DAB 88 Leesburg/LEE 86 Sanford/SFB 88 Orlando/MCO 87 Melbourne/MLB 88 Vero Beach/VRB 86 Fort Pierce/FPR 87 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 63 73 54 / 0 0 90 30 MCO 84 65 79 55 / 0 0 80 30 MLB 85 65 79 59 / 0 0 80 60 VRB 85 65 82 61 / 0 0 70 70 LEE 82 64 73 50 / 0 10 80 20 SFB 84 64 76 54 / 0 0 90 30 ORL 84 65 77 55 / 0 0 80 30 FPR 85 65 82 61 / 0 0 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for AMZ550-552-570-572. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ555-575. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for AMZ555-575. && $$ Haley/Smith/Fehling