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Area Forecast Discussion

NWS Area Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MLB
Regional NWS Weather Office: Melbourne, FL

000
FXUS62 KMLB 022113
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
413 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

...New MARINE, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight...Looking at a fairly quiet end to a warm
day. Vero Beach did manage to tie their high temperature of 86
degrees, last set in 1985, but Fort Pierce (also 86 degree) didn`t
quite make it to their record of 87 degrees. Partly cloud skies
becoming mostly clear tonight. Expecting a gentle to moderate
breeze to continue through the night, which should limit or
prevent fog develop, but will likely see low clouds again.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

Friday...Troughing over the eastern US and the associated
substantial low pressure system deepening over southeast Canada
sweeps up the mid level shortwave swinging across the GOMEX, the
frontal boundary stalled across the southeastern US, and the weak
low pressure system embedded in the boundary, early Friday
morning. This mess of boundaries and the weak low manages to
organize into a fairly well defined and quick moving cold front by
the time it gets to northern ECFL in the morning. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms work southward over
the course of the day, with rain chances becoming 80-90 pct along
the main convective line. Highest rain chances along and north of
I-4 from the late morning through the afternoon, south of I-4 to
The Cape from the early afternoon to the evening, and to the south
from the afternoon through the late evening. Isolated showers will
be possible ahead of the main line, and scattered showers expected
for a few hours afterwards. As far as the thunderstorm potential
goes, GFS soundings are actually showing slightly steeper lapse
rates and less inhibition to the south than previous runs, but the
mid to upper levels remain very dry and CAPE in generally is
lacking (less than 1000 J/kg). Daytime heating will provide some
additional instability, so the possibility remain for a few strong
storms capable of producing cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds
40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Skies clear and temperatures drop
behind the front, with winds veering to northerly and becoming
breezy to windy, especially along the coast where winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 mph with gust around 35 mph.
Afternoon highs in the 70s north of The Cape, and the lower 80s to
the south.

Friday Night-Saturday...By sunset Friday evening, the front is
anticipated to be over the southern third of the FL peninsula, still
bringing high likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms
especially over the Atlantic and at the immediate coast through the
overnight. The front then slows to a crawl into Saturday morning,
completely stalling early in the weekend. Lingering rain chances
will persist especially from the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee
on Saturday, but areas along and north of the I-4 corridor should
remain generally dry. Breezy conditions are expected due to a
tightening pressure gradient as surface high pressure drops over the
coastal Carolinas. Northeast to east winds up to 15-20 mph expected
at the coast in the morning will spread inland and increase slightly
into the afternoon.

Temperatures behind the front Saturday morning will drop to the
upper 40s to mid 50s with the exception of the Treasure Coast which
will still reside in the low 60s prior to the passage. Saturday
temps will be cooler and pleasant, only reaching the upper 60s to
low 70s. Lows Sunday morning warm to the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday-Thursday...(modified previous) The stalled frontal boundary
over the western Atlantic will lift northward on Sunday. Some upper
level support along the boundary aids in developing a surface low
late Sunday night into early Monday morning, although a bit of
disagreement still present in the global model solutions. The GFS
pulls an inverted trough just offshore from Cape Canaveral on Sunday
afternoon, then rapidly developing into a surface low by Monday
morning as it pulls seaward to the open Atlantic. The ECM develops a
low closer to the Bahamas then pulling seaward at a similar time
scale. Still, the GFS solution would keep precip in the forecast
Sunday night, whereas the offshore ECM solution will keep the area
dry. High pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday
keeping PoPs over land below mentionable levels until late in the
week. Temperatures will slowly warm with highs in the mid to upper
70s on Sunday will increasing into the low to mid 80s by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

Rest of Today-Friday...Boating conditions begin to deteriorate,
becoming poor offshore tonight, then quickly become hazardous to
dangerous by Friday afternoon. High pressure that has been
anchored over Florida retreats eastward ahead of a cold front,
reaching the Volusia waters by Friday morning and working south
across the waters through the day. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms ahead Friday ahead of and along the
front. Winds SW 10-15 nearshore (increasing to 15-20 kts offshore
tonight) quickly become northerly 20-25 kts behind the front, with
winds up to 30 kts possible. Frequent gusts to gale force expected
in the Volusia and Brevard waters by Friday afternoon, with a Gale
Watch going into effect at 1 PM. A Small Craft Advisory goes into
effect for the Treasure Coast waters at 5 PM as the front reaches
those waters, but currently not expecting frequent gusts to gale
force until early Saturday morning. Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5
ft offshore begin building Friday evening, becoming 6-9 ft north
of The Cape and 5-7 ft to the south by sunset.

Friday Night-Monday...A long duration marine event will set up late
this week behind Friday`s cold front passage. As the front stalls
over south FL Friday night, a northeast wind surge will arrive,
quickly increasing over 25 knots north of Sebastian Inlet that will
expand southward into Saturday morning, with frequent gusts to gale
force possible. Seas will rapidly build this weekend from 5-7 feet
late Friday to 7-9 feet nearshore and up to 12 feet offshore within
24 hours. Seas will only gradually subside, dropping to 4-6 feet
early Monday. A Gale Watch will remain in effect from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning, possibly expanding in time with
subsequent updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

VFR conditions the rest of today and early tonight for
KDAB/KISM/KLEE/KSFB/KTIX, and mainly VFR conditions through the
TAF period for KFPR/KMLB/KTIX/KVRB/KSUA. IFR/LIFR CIG impacts
possible at the northern terminals from around 08-14Z. SW winds
increasing to around 8 kts by early morning and strong flow above
the will limit fog potential, but can`t rule out some reductions
at the northern terminals. Increased rain and thunderstorm chances
Friday and Friday night as a cold front passes through. VCSH
starting around 13Z from KTIX northward. VCTS starting 16Z for
KLEE/KMCO and around 17Z for KMCO. TEMPOs for MVFR-IFR CIGS and
IFR-LIFR VIS from TSRA likely in upcoming TAF packages. VCSH with
some MVFR VIS/CIG impacts expected for a few hours after the
heaviest convection passes, then conditions improving to VFR
behind the front.&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 408 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

Vero Beach reached 86 degrees this afternoon, which ties their
high temperature record for today. (all records for today were
set in 1985):

Daytona Bch/DAB 88
Leesburg/LEE    86
Sanford/SFB     88
Orlando/MCO     87
Melbourne/MLB   88
Vero Beach/VRB  86
Fort Pierce/FPR 87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  63  73  54 /   0   0  90  30
MCO  84  65  79  55 /   0   0  80  30
MLB  85  65  79  59 /   0   0  80  60
VRB  85  65  82  61 /   0   0  70  70
LEE  82  64  73  50 /   0  10  80  20
SFB  84  64  76  54 /   0   0  90  30
ORL  84  65  77  55 /   0   0  80  30
FPR  85  65  82  61 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

Haley/Smith/Fehling



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